International Institute of Compassionate Care
  • Home
  • Mission | Aims
  • Who We Are
    • Board of Directors
    • Scientific Committee
    • Administration Committee
    • Academic Associates
    • Young Scientist Associates
    • Compassionate Care Teams
  • Blog & Publications
    • Publications
    • Blog
    • IICC Video Gallery
    • Patient Education
    • COVID-19
  • News & Events
  • Med Conceptions
  • Join Us
  • Contact Us
  • Subscribe to Our Newsletter
News & Events, News - Front page  /  January 7, 2021

COVID-19: Forecasting Confirmed Cases and Deaths with a Simple Time Series Model

A published article co-authored by Dr Neophytos Stylianou, Director of the International Institute for Compassionate Care.

Authors:
Fotios Petropoulos, Spyros Makridakis and Neophytos Stylianou

Abstract

Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant.

1-s2.0-S0169207020301862-main

Post navigation

Αppointment of Professors Sir David Haslam and Christos Lionis as President and Vice President of the Institute’s Scientific Council
Διαδικτυακή ημερίδα με θέμα την Συμπονετική Φροντίδα και την πανδημία

Share your thoughts Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Follow us

  • Facebook
Copyright © 2022 International Institute for Compassionate Care.
All Rights Reserved.
  • Elara by LyraThemes